Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Iran
  • Israel
  • Iraq
  • Oman
  • Georgia
  • Jordan
  • Kuwait
  • Bahrain
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Yemen
  • Qatar
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Tajikistan

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $866,821$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,685,443.1}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 353.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,685,443.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $45,255$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{92,356.1}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 287.5)}}\) (asimptote \(92,356.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $211,160$ on 2020-11-23

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $329,998$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{382,865.3}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 201.3)}}\) (asimptote \(382,865.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,811$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,334.8}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 234.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,334.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,586$ on 2020-11-23

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $537,457$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{584,259.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 191.4)}}\) (asimptote \(584,259.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11,996$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,833.3}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 163.9)}}\) (asimptote \(11,833.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $57,807$ on 2020-11-23

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $122,356$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{111,355.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 139.5)}}\) (asimptote \(111,355.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,386$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,526.7}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 163.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,526.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,393$ on 2020-11-23

Georgia⮸

Population $3,989,167$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $108,690$ on 2020-11-23

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,012$ on 2020-11-23

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,508$ on 2020-11-23

Jordan⮸

Population $10,203,134$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $188,410$ on 2020-11-23

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,302$ on 2020-11-23

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $66,094$ on 2020-11-23

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $140,393$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{143,527.2}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 167.6)}}\) (asimptote \(143,527.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $868$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{865.1}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 120.3)}}\) (asimptote \(865.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,677$ on 2020-11-23

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $85,886$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{91,808.6}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 170.4)}}\) (asimptote \(91,808.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $339$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{371.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 163.5)}}\) (asimptote \(371.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,530$ on 2020-11-23

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Yemen recovered 93%
Qatar recovered 92%
Saudi Arabia recovered 91%
Bahrain recovered 78%
Tajikistan recovered 72%
Nepal recovered 60%
Kuwait recovered 58%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 42%
Iraq recovered 8%

Yemen⮸

Population $29,825,964$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-05-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,107$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,039.1}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 50.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,039.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $609$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{591.4}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 56.7)}}\) (asimptote \(591.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-05-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $39$ on 2020-11-23

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $137,415$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126,064.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 99.0)}}\) (asimptote \(126,064.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $236$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{223.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 96.2)}}\) (asimptote \(223.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,693$ on 2020-11-23

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $355,489$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{343,323.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 107.3)}}\) (asimptote \(343,323.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,796$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,713.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 128.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,713.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,877$ on 2020-11-23

Tajikistan⮸

Population $9,537,645$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,932$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,281.6}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 66.8)}}\) (asimptote \(11,281.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $86$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86.9}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 41.5)}}\) (asimptote \(86.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-30 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $534$ on 2020-11-23